Canadians are re-evaluating their housing situation, and it’s sending many to new provinces. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows a significant interprovincial migration in Q3 2021. This is the flow of Canadians looking to improve their quality of life by moving to a new province. Since Ontario’s home prices have begun to surge, the province has been on the losing end of this trend. 

Net Interprovincial Migration

Today we’re going to be looking at the net interprovincial migration provinces received. As stated above, interprovincial migration is when someone leaves a province for another. The net is the balance of both incoming and outgoing migrants. Most analysts focus on the total population growth, but they’re missing out on a lot of great details.

Analysts and politicians tend to view people as interchangeable. Who cares if you lose one Millennial if you can import two new ones, right? This tends to miss whether or not people want to be in the province long term. A net increase of interprovincial migration tells us where established Canadians see opportunity. It also tells us where they didn’t see opportunity.

Just because a population is growing, doesn’t mean it’s where people see opportunity. Canada’s big immigration hubs tend to attract people based on its historic reputation. More recent data shows these hubs also happen to be the worst paying for recent immigrants. The disconnect can persist for a while, but people eventually realize why locals are moving.
 

Canadians Are Changing Provinces At One Of The Fastest Rates Ever

Canadians are relocating to new provinces at one of the fastest rates ever. Interprovincial migration reached 94,248 people in Q3 2021, down 24% from the last quarter. It was 45% higher than the same quarter a year ago and the biggest Q3 since 2007. Also worth a mention — Q2 2021 was the biggest migration since the early 90s real estate bubble.
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Canadian Interprovincial Migration

The total number of Canadians that moved to a new province per quarter.

Source: Statistics Canada; Better Dwelling.

BC And Alberta Are Winners Of Net Interprovincial Migration

Where are people moving? To the coast and/or cheap land, it appears. BC saw a net gain of 5,777 people from interprovincial migration in Q3 2021, making it the top spot for Canadians. Alberta isn’t too far behind with a net gain of 4,489 people, bucking the trend of losses it has seen since 2015. Nova Scotia managed to come in third with a net gain of 2,496 people, continuing the inflow seen since 2020.
 

Canadian Net Interprovincial Migration

The net flow of people migrating in and out of each province.

Source: Statistics Canada; Better Dwelling.

Ontario Is The Biggest Loser Of The Trend

One province’s gain is another’s loss — and Ontario was the biggest loser. Interprovincial migration for the province shows a net loss of 6,892 people in Q3 2021. This means almost 7,000 more people left for other provinces than arrived. Negative growth has been a persistent trend for the past few years, so it’s not just related to the pandemic. The past 3 quarters have seen the trend accelerate though, resembling outflows in the 80s.
 

Ontario Net Interprovincial Migration

The net flow of people migrating in and out of Ontario.

Source: Statistics Canada; Better Dwelling.

Losers rounding out the top three losses don’t seem like they would be in the same category as Ontario, but they are. Manitoba’s net loss of interprovincial migrants reached 3,877 people in Q3 2021. Saskatchewan wasn’t too far behind with a net loss of 3,367 people in the same quarter. Both provinces have generally seen a net loss for the past decade, with a few small exceptions.  

As fast as interprovincial migration has been, it’s unclear how this trend continues. On one hand, higher interest rates are primed to increase interest costs. Higher interest costs slow home sales — which is believed to be a big driver of the migration. This would slow migration.

Some analysts (such as Fitch Ratings) see home prices rising while rates rise and incomes fall. If this odd scenario were to occur, it could accelerate the flow out of provinces like Ontario and into places like BC. After all, if you’re going to pay an obscene amount to live in Canada, it might as well be where the best views are.

Article by: Daniel Wong || betterdwelling.com